Steady growth in travel volume

During the 2026 National Day holiday, China recorded 826mn domestic trips and RMB738bn in spending, with daily averages up 6.3% and 4.3% YoY, respectively. However, average spending per domestic trip fell 1.9% YoY to about RMB894. On the other hand, total cross-regional passenger flows reached 2.14bn, with the daily average up 0.6% YoY. Railway daily passenger volume also rose 12.7% YoY, while civil aviation daily volume stayed flat. Long-haul travel increased, with trips of eight days or more rising from under 6% in 2024 to over 10% in 2026. County-level travel bookings grew by 42% YoY. This steady travel growth provided a solid customer base for dining and travel-related services.

Dining benefitted, fresh drinks outperformed

Dining service revenue rose 9% YoY during the holiday, according to data. Snack service grew 15.5% and fast food grew 30.6%. Haidilao (6862.HK) served nearly 2mn customers on October 1, a single-day record. The strongest growth came from travel-related venues such as scenic spots and transport hubs. This trend directly benefits dining supply chain companies with exposure to mass dining and prepared food.

Fresh drinks players offering low average ticket sizes and higher value for money delivered standout performance, exemplified by Guming (1364.HK). Data showed beverage and cold drink service revenue growing over 2x YoY during the holiday. More importantly, the sector saw volume and price growth together with HSD YoY growth in average same store sales, likely due to strong homecoming flows, which boosted sales in third- to fifth-tier cities.

Overseas travel lifts OTAs, but regulation weighs

Overseas travel outperformed domestic travel during the holiday. According to Civil Aviation Administration of China, international flight ticket bookings for the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holiday rose 22.5% YoY. Ctrip (9987.HK) reported that outbound vacationers taking trips of eight days or more rose from about 29% in 2024 to about 42% in 2026. This is positive for OTA platforms as longer trips and multi-destination travel significantly increased per-customer transaction value and platform commission revenue, supporting OTA Q3 revenue growth. However, for Ctrip, the aftermath of its antitrust issue has resulted in a structural change to its commission income that may require some time to recover.

Hotels and airlines under price pressure

Compared to overseas travel, domestic travel demand softened during the holiday. Hotel revenue per available room (RevPAR) fell about 2% YoY due to declining occupancy, according to industry data, while ADR remained relatively resilient. Airlines saw domestic ticket prices rise 9% YoY, but passenger volume grew only 0.4% YoY. Railway travel diverted short-haul demand from aviation and achieved 10.5% YoY growth in passenger volume. Average spending per traveler declined across both sectors. This weakness reflects cautious consumer sentiment even as total travel volume remained stable.

Weak confidence also hits duty free

Hainan offshore duty-free shopping visitors rose 13.4% YoY, but sales value grew only 5.0% YoY. Average spending per customer fell 9.5% YoY to about RMB6,951. This suggests that customers remain cautious about discretionary spendings. Travel volume growth did not translate into higher spending per trip, signaling cautious consumer sentiment.

Our view

The National Day holiday is China's second longest holiday period during the year, thus tourist spending serves as a key gauge of consumer confidence. Amid the prolonged downturn in China's real estate market, slow wage growth, and a weak job market, consumer willingness to spend has remained subdued. This year’s National Day Golden Week continues to experience travel volume growth but sluggish spending growth, a pattern similarly observed during Chinese New Year and Labour Day holidays.

Based on operational performance during the golden week, we prefer Haidilao, Yum China and Guming. Haidilao offers recovery upside from mature operations and stabilizing table turnover, while delivery and multi-brand expansion drive long-term growth. Yum China provides upside on both topline and bottom line, supported by its ambitious target of 30,000 stores by 2030, and the Pizza Hut acquisition should further enhance earnings upon completion. Guming benefits from high lower-tier city penetration and strong execution in new product launches, and its coffee rollout is more advanced and economically productive than peers, offering future growth potential. The stocks are currently trading at 10.8x/14.4x/14.5x FY26E P/E, respectively. (Amelia Deng)