Macau’s gaming revenue softened in April 2026. According to the Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau (DICJ), gross gaming revenue (GGR) for April reached MOP19.89bn, up 5.5% YoY but down 12% MoM, missing market expectations of a 6.5% YoY growth. The slower YoY expansion compared to March’s 15.0% was primarily due to seasonally weaker mass market demand in the lead-up to the Labour Day Golden Week. Meanwhile, the sequential decline largely reflected a lower-than-usual VIP win rate. Encouragingly, the positive YoY growth confirms that consumer sentiment remains resilient.

Visitor arrivals have provided a solid foundation for gaming demand, even as they moderated from the 1Q26 peak. In March 2026, inbound visitors totaled 3.39mn, up 11% YoY and broadly in line with March 2019 levels. For 1Q26, arrivals grew 14% YoY, driven primarily by a 20% surge in same-day visitors. During the Ching Ming and Easter holiday period (3–7 April), total inbound arrivals exceeded 666k, averaging approximately 133k per day. These figures point to sustained tourism interest even outside major peak seasons.

Labour Day Golden Week (1‑5 May) serves as a powerful near‑term catalyst. Early indicators show robust demand. Over the first three days of the holiday, visitor arrivals reached about 632k, nearly flat with the Chinese New Year holiday and the second day set a new daily record of 247k. Hotel occupancy and rates remained strong during the Labour Day Golden Week, certain Sands China properties are fully booked and luxury room rates up ~20% from late April levels

Our view: We expect Macau’s gaming market to sustain positive momentum through 2Q26, supported by the Labour Day Golden Week and a steady pipeline of concerts and events. The high oil prices also discourage certain long-haul travel plans.  A clear trend is emerging t hat the mass-market segment is growing faster than VIP, suggesting a shift in segment mix. The mass market now accounts for an estimated 70–75% of total GGR. Based on April’s run rate and the upcoming event calendar, we see limited downside risk. We favour operators with major market share: Sands China (1928 HK, HK$15.95, HK$129bn), MGM China (2282 HK, HK$11.24, HK$42.7bn), Galaxy Entertainment (0027 HK, HK$32.22, HK$141bn). These counters are trading at 14.4x, 8.8x and 12.3x FY26E P/E, respectively. (Research Department)