June GGR drops as event diverted consumers – Macau's gaming revenue in June fell 12.1% YoY to MOP18.5bn and dropped 18.1% from May, according to the Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau of Macau. Typical June seasonality compounding with the FIFA World Cup, is believed to be diverting certain gambling spending. 

1H26 GGR in traction of full-year forecast – In the first six months of 2026, gaming revenue rose 6.8% YoY to MOP127bn, driven by 14.2% YoY growth in the first quarter, while the second quarter revenue was flattish YoY. 1H26 GGR now represents 54% of the government’s full‑year forecast of MOP236bn (-4.6% YoY), progressing at a healthy pace.

Our view:

The FIFA World Cup (ending in July 19) is a likely reason impacting Macau gaming revenue now until the summer holiday season (July-August) which tends to bring higher tourists’ traffic according to previous records.  For the second half of the year, monthly growth is projected to slow down compared with 1H26 with a LSD pace, though a strong event calendar might mitigate gaming operators’ non-gaming revenue, including concerts of K-pop groups and famous singers, as well as the NBA China Games.

We continue to favor Galaxy Entertainment (27 HK, HK$29.50, HK$128.8bn) given its leading position in non-gaming diversification and large scale properties. We also like Sands China (1928 HK, HK$13.12, HK$106.2bn) and MGM China (2282 HK, HK$9.84, HK$37.4bn) for their attractive dividend yields of ~4%, respectively. Galaxy Entertainment, Sands China and MGM China are trading at 12x/12x/7.6x for FY26E P/E, respectively. (Amelia Deng)